Chapter 4 Bayesian statistics: When accurate past information shortens the distance to the aha moment -- Objectives -- What is Bayes' formula? -- The confusing formula -- Classroom activity 4.1: Coin trick to explain Bayes' theorem and illustrate the problem with subjectivity in prior knowledge -- Step 1: Setup and identifying the two-headed quarter -- Step 2: Pass out quarters and flip three times -- Scenario 1. I don't think the instructor had prior knowledge -- the coin was randomly chosen -- Scenario 2. I think the instructor had prior knowledge and chose the person with the fake coin -- Scenario 3. I think the instructor had prior knowledge and chose one of the real coins -- The medical problem by tree diagram -- Your honor, gut instinct does not counter Reverend Bayes -- How it should work in industry (but rarely does) -- Bibliography -- Part II: Introduction: Data, statistics, and continuous improvement via the sport of juggling -- Chapter 5 Learning the sport of juggling step by step -- Objectives -- The history of juggling and famous jugglers over the years -- Juggling as brain food -- The first step: The one-ball cascade -- Two-ball cascade juggling: The most critical pattern to learn -- Next step to three-ball juggling: The two-and-half-ball cascade -- The three-ball cascade -- Optional advanced next steps for the advanced jugglers -- Bibliography -- Chapter 6 The start of any process including learning to juggle: Mean, standard deviation, and the learning curve -- Objectives -- The key to any process optimization: The right measurement -- Creativity in choosing measurement systems: Convert it to something measureable -- Mean and standard deviation for tosses to drop as a training technique for process optimization -- Process capability calculation: Number of standard deviations -- Process capability by capability analysis